Soll Jack B, Klayman Joshua
INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France.
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2004 Mar;30(2):299-314. doi: 10.1037/0278-7393.30.2.299.
Judges were asked to make numerical estimates (e.g., "In what year was the first flight of a hot air balloon?"). Judges provided high and low estimates such that they were X% sure that the correct answer lay between them. They exhibited substantial overconfidence: The correct answer fell inside their intervals much less than X% of the time. This contrasts with choices between 2 possible answers to a question, which showed much less overconfidence. The authors show that overconfidence in interval estimates can result from variability in setting interval widths. However, the main cause is that subjective intervals are systematically too narrow given the accuracy of one's information-sometimes only 40% as large as necessary to be well calibrated. The degree of overconfidence varies greatly depending on how intervals are elicited. There are also substantial differences among domains and between male and female judges. The authors discuss the possible psychological mechanisms underlying this pattern of findings.
研究人员要求评委进行数值估计（例如，“热气球首次飞行是在哪一年？”）。评委给出了上限和下限估计，以便他们有X%的把握确定正确答案在两者之间。他们表现出了极大的过度自信：正确答案落在他们所设定区间内的时间远少于X%。这与对一个问题的两种可能答案进行选择的情况形成对比，后者显示出的过度自信要少得多。作者表明，区间估计中的过度自信可能源于设定区间宽度时的变异性。然而，主要原因是，考虑到个人信息的准确性，主观区间系统性地过窄——有时只有达到良好校准所需宽度的40%。过度自信的程度因区间的引出方式不同而有很大差异。不同领域之间以及男性和女性评委之间也存在显著差异。作者讨论了这一研究结果模式背后可能的心理机制。
