The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, PA 19104, USA.
Psychol Sci. 2013 Jul 1;24(7):1190-7. doi: 10.1177/0956797612470700. Epub 2013 May 30.
Overprecision-an excessive confidence that one knows the truth-is both the most durable and the least understood form of overconfidence. This article outlines an approach to the study of overprecision that avoids some of the methodological problems of other approaches and better reflects the way uncertainty affects choices in everyday life. We measured the precision in judgment implied by people's tendency to adjust their point estimates of an uncertain quantity in response to the costs of overestimating or underestimating the correct answer. The results revealed robust overprecision. People adjusted their estimates less than they should have given their actual knowledge, and this effect was driven by their subjective confidence.
过度精确——一种对自己掌握真理的过度自信——是最持久、也是最不易被理解的过度自信形式。本文概述了一种研究过度精确的方法，该方法避免了其他方法中的一些方法学问题，并且更好地反映了不确定性在日常生活中如何影响选择。我们通过衡量人们在调整对不确定数量的点估计时，根据高估或低估正确答案的成本来判断的精度，以此来衡量判断中的过度精确程度。结果显示存在明显的过度精确现象。人们的调整幅度小于他们根据实际知识本应做出的调整幅度，而这种效应是由他们的主观信心驱动的。
