Kan Haidong, Chen Bingheng
Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
Arch Environ Health. 2003 Jun;58(6):360-7.
In this study, the authors assessed the relationship between air pollution and daily mortality from June 2000 to December 2001 in Shanghai, the largest city in China. They used the generalized additive model to allow for the highly flexible long-term and seasonable trends, and for nonlinear weather variables. In the single-pollutant models, the authors found significant associations between concentrations of air pollutants (particulate matter less than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter [PM10], sulfur dioxide [SO2], and nitrogen dioxide [NO2]) and daily mortality. An increase of 10 microg/m3 in PM10, SO2, and NO2 corresponded to a respective increase in relative risk of mortality from all causes of 1.003 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.001, 1.005), 1.014 (95% CI = 1.008, 1.020), and 1.015 (95% CI = 1.008, 1.022). In the multiple-pollutant models, the association between SO2 and daily mortality was not affected by the inclusion of other pollutants; for PM10 and NO2, however, the inclusion of other pollutants possibly weakened the effects between these 2 pollutants and mortality. This finding suggests that gaseous pollutants may be more important than particulate matter as indicators of health in Shanghai. The authors' analyses provided evidence that the current amounts of air pollution in Shanghai continue to adversely affect population health, and strengthen the rationale for limiting the quantities of pollutants in outdoor air.
在本研究中,作者评估了2000年6月至2001年12月期间中国最大城市上海的空气污染与每日死亡率之间的关系。他们使用广义相加模型来考虑高度灵活的长期和季节性趋势以及非线性天气变量。在单污染物模型中,作者发现空气污染物(空气动力学直径小于10微米的颗粒物[PM10]、二氧化硫[SO2]和二氧化氮[NO2])浓度与每日死亡率之间存在显著关联。PM10、SO2和NO2每增加10微克/立方米,相应地所有原因导致的死亡相对风险分别增加1.003(95%置信区间[CI]=1.001,1.005)、1.014(95%CI=1.008,1.020)和1.015(95%CI=1.008,1.022)。在多污染物模型中,SO2与每日死亡率之间的关联不受其他污染物纳入的影响;然而,对于PM10和NO2,其他污染物的纳入可能削弱了这两种污染物与死亡率之间的影响。这一发现表明,在上海,气态污染物作为健康指标可能比颗粒物更重要。作者的分析提供了证据,表明上海目前的空气污染水平继续对人群健康产生不利影响,并强化了限制室外空气中污染物数量的理由。