Milligan Paul, Njie Alpha, Bennett Steve
MRC Laboratories, The Gambia.
Int J Epidemiol. 2004 Jun;33(3):469-76. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyh096. Epub 2004 Mar 11.
The Expanded Program for Immunization (EPI) random walk method has been widely used by the World Health Organization and others for rapid cluster sample surveys where an up-to-date household sampling frame is not available. However, it is not a probability sample, does not allow for population movement since the last census, and does not ensure objectivity in household selection or permit call-backs for non-response. Compact segment sampling avoids these problems and has been proposed as a slower but cleaner alternative.
We conducted two surveys, one using the EPI scheme and one using compact segment sampling, to estimate vaccination coverage in Western Region of The Gambia within 3 months of each other in 2000-2001.
Point estimates for vaccination coverage from the two surveys rarely differed by more than 2%. Any differences were more likely to be due to household selection than to population movement. A simple mathematical model showed that even in extreme situations, ignoring population movement since the last census is unlikely to have any appreciable effect. Rates of homogeneity did not differ systematically between the surveys.
In situations where quality of fieldwork can be guaranteed, the EPI random walk method can give accurate and precise results. However, compact segment sampling is generally to be preferred as it ensures objectivity in household selection and permits the estimation of population totals (such as those unvaccinated), which are helpful for planning service provision.
扩大免疫规划(EPI)随机游走法已被世界卫生组织及其他机构广泛用于在没有最新住户抽样框的情况下进行快速整群抽样调查。然而,它不是概率样本,无法考虑自上次人口普查以来的人口流动情况,也不能确保住户选择的客观性,或允许对无应答情况进行回访。紧凑段抽样避免了这些问题,并被提议作为一种较慢但更可靠的替代方法。
我们在2000 - 2001年期间相隔3个月内进行了两项调查,一项采用EPI方案,另一项采用紧凑段抽样,以估计冈比亚西部地区的疫苗接种覆盖率。
两项调查中疫苗接种覆盖率的点估计值差异很少超过2%。任何差异更可能是由于住户选择而非人口流动造成的。一个简单的数学模型表明,即使在极端情况下,忽略自上次人口普查以来的人口流动也不太可能产生任何显著影响。两次调查的同质性比率没有系统性差异。
在能够保证实地调查质量的情况下,EPI随机游走法可以给出准确精确的结果。然而,紧凑段抽样通常更受青睐,因为它确保了住户选择的客观性,并允许估计人口总数(如未接种疫苗的人数),这有助于规划服务提供。