Rivest Louis-Paul, Daigle Gaétan
Département de Mathématiques et de Statistique, Université Laval, Ste-Foy, Québec G1K 7P4, Canada.
Biometrics. 2004 Mar;60(1):100-7. doi: 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2004.00157.x.
The robust design is a method for implementing a mark-recapture experiment featuring a nested sampling structure. The first level consists of primary sampling sessions; the population experiences mortality and immigration between primary sessions so that open population models apply at this level. The second level of sampling has a short mark-recapture study within each primary session. Closed population models are used at this stage to estimate the animal abundance at each primary session. This article suggests a loglinear technique to fit the robust design. Loglinear models for the analysis of mark-recapture data from closed and open populations are first reviewed. These two types of models are then combined to analyze the data from a robust design. The proposed loglinear approach to the robust design allows incorporating parameters for a heterogeneity in the capture probabilities of the units within each primary session. Temporary emigration out of the study area can also be accounted for in the loglinear framework. The analysis is relatively simple; it relies on a large Poisson regression with the vector of frequencies of the capture histories as dependent variable. An example concerned with the estimation of abundance and survival of the red-back vole in an area of southeastern Québec is presented.
稳健设计是一种用于实施具有嵌套抽样结构的标记重捕实验的方法。第一级由主要抽样期组成；种群在主要抽样期之间经历死亡和迁入，因此开放种群模型适用于这一级别。第二级抽样是在每个主要抽样期内进行一次简短的标记重捕研究。在此阶段使用封闭种群模型来估计每个主要抽样期的动物数量。本文提出了一种对数线性技术来拟合稳健设计。首先回顾用于分析封闭和开放种群标记重捕数据的对数线性模型。然后将这两种类型的模型结合起来分析稳健设计的数据。所提出的用于稳健设计的对数线性方法允许纳入每个主要抽样期内各单元捕获概率异质性的参数。在对数线性框架中也可以考虑暂时迁出研究区域的情况。分析相对简单；它依赖于以捕获历史频率向量为因变量的大型泊松回归。给出了一个关于魁北克东南部某地区红背田鼠数量估计和存活率的例子。
