Base line prevalence and spatial distribution of Echinococcus multilocularis in a newly recognized endemic area in the Netherlands.

The base line prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in foxes was determined in the eastern part of the province of Groningen in the Netherlands adjacent to the German border. This region has been identified in a previous study in 1998 as one of the westernmost border areas of E. multilocularis. Base line prevalence data are important for a better insight in the possible spread of the parasite and its changes in time. As fox feces containing E. multilocularis eggs are an important source for human exposure this base line prevalence is also an indicator for the potential risk for public health. The base line prevalence was estimated at 9.4% (95% CI: 5.2-16.5%). These results confirm previous findings of E. multilocularis in the same region. The spatial distribution of the infected foxes has been analyzed as a spatial gradient using a logistic model. The prevalence appeared to change strongest in east-western direction and was highest near the German border, adjacent to a German endemic area. These results suggest that the border areas in the Netherlands are the most margin of E. multilocularis territory.