Can we improve the prediction of stone-free status after extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy for ureteral stones? A neural network or a statistical model?

PURPOSE

We evaluated whether an artificial neural network (ANN) can improve the prediction of stone-free status after extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) (Dornier Medical Systems, Inc., Marietta, Georgia) for ureteral stones compared to a logistic regression (LR) model.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between February 1989 and December 1998, 984 patients with ureteral stones, including 780 males and 204 females with a mean age +/- SD of 40.85 +/- 10.33 years, were treated with ESWL. Stone-free status at 3 months was determined by urinary tract plain x-ray and excretory urography. Of all patients 919 (93.3%) were free of stones. The impact of 10 factors on stone-free status was studied using an LR model and ANN. These factors were patient age and sex, renal anatomy, stone location, side, number, length and width, whether stones were de novo or recurrent, and stent use. An LR model was constructed and ANN was trained on 688 randomly selected patients (70%) to predict stone-free status at 3 months. The 10 factors were used as covariates in the LR model and as input parameters to ANN. Performance of the trained net and developed logistic model was evaluated in the remaining 296 patients (30%), who served as the test set. The sensitivity (percent of correctly predicted stone-free cases), specificity (percent of correctly predicted nonstonefree cases), positive predictive value, overall accuracy and average classification rate of the 2 techniques were compared. Relevant variables influencing the construction of the 2 models were compared.

RESULTS

Evaluating the performance of the LR and ANN models on the test set revealed a sensitivity of 100% and 77.9%, a specificity of 0.0% and 75%, a positive predictive value of 93.2% and 97.2%, an overall accuracy of 93.2% and 77.7%, and an average classification rate of 50% and 76.5%, respectively. LR failed to predict any nonstone free cases. LR and ANN identified stone location and stent use as important factors in determining the outcome, while ANN also identified stone length and width as influential factors.

CONCLUSIONS

ANN and LR could predict adequately those who would be stone-free after ESWL for ureteral stones. The neural network has a higher ability to predict those who fail to respond to ESWL.