Walker N, Stover J, Stanecki K, Zaniewski A E, Grassly N C, Garcia-Calleja J M, Ghys P D
Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS, 20 Avenue Appia, CH-1211 Geneva 27, Geneva, Switzerland.
Sex Transm Infect. 2004 Aug;80 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):i10-13. doi: 10.1136/sti.2004.010207.
This paper describes an approach to making estimates and short term projections of future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics. This approach focuses on identifying populations which through their behaviour are at higher risk of infection with HIV or who are exposed through the risk behaviour of their sexual partners. Estimates of the size and HIV prevalence of these populations allow the total number of HIV infected people in a country or region to be estimated. Subsequently, assumptions about the possible level and timing of saturation of HIV prevalence among each population can be used to explore future scenarios of HIV prevalence. The basic structure of the software used to make estimates and projections is described. This software includes a set of consistency and audit checks to help exclude unrealistic projections. The paper also discusses the strengths and weakness to this approach to making estimates and projections of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics.
本文描述了一种对艾滋病病毒/艾滋病（HIV/AIDS）低水平流行和集中流行国家的未来情况进行估计和短期预测的方法。该方法着重于识别那些因其行为而感染HIV风险较高的人群，或者那些因性伴侣的风险行为而暴露于感染风险的人群。对这些人群的规模和HIV流行率的估计有助于估算一个国家或地区HIV感染者的总数。随后，关于各人群中HIV流行率可能达到饱和的水平和时间的假设可用于探索HIV流行率的未来情况。文中描述了用于进行估计和预测的软件的基本结构。该软件包括一组一致性和审核检查，以帮助排除不切实际的预测。本文还讨论了这种对HIV/AIDS低水平流行和集中流行国家进行估计和预测的方法的优缺点。
