Ghys P D, Brown T, Grassly N C, Garnett G, Stanecki K A, Stover J, Walker N
Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS, 20 Avenue Appia, CH-1211 Geneva 27, Geneva, Switzerland.
Sex Transm Infect. 2004 Aug;80 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):i5-9. doi: 10.1136/sti.2004.010199.
This paper describes the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for estimating and projecting HIV prevalence levels in countries with generalised epidemics. The paper gives an overall summary of the software and interface. It describes the process of defining and modelling a national epidemic in terms of locally relevant sub-epidemics and the four epidemiological parameters used to fit a curve to produce the prevalence trends in the epidemic. It also provides an example of using the EPP in a country with a generalised epidemic. The paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the software and its envisaged future developments.
本文介绍了用于估计和预测广泛流行艾滋病国家的艾滋病毒流行水平的估计与预测软件包（EPP）。本文对该软件及其界面进行了全面总结。它描述了根据当地相关的子疫情来定义和模拟国家疫情的过程，以及用于拟合曲线以得出疫情流行趋势的四个流行病学参数。它还提供了在一个广泛流行艾滋病的国家使用EPP的示例。本文讨论了该软件的优缺点及其预期的未来发展。
