科学思维中的理论与数据交互:来自分子实验室和认知实验室的证据

Theory and data interactions of the scientific mind: evidence from the molecular and the cognitive laboratory.

作者信息

Fugelsang Jonathan A, Stein Courtney B, Green Adam E, Dunbar Kevin N

机构信息

Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire 03755, USA.

出版信息

Can J Exp Psychol. 2004 Jun;58(2):86-95. doi: 10.1037/h0085799.

Abstract

A number of researchers and scholars have stressed the importance of disconfirmation in the quest for the development of scientific knowledge (e.g., Popper, 1959). Paradoxically, studies examining human reasoning in the laboratory have typically found that people display a confirmation bias in that they are more likely to seek out and attend to data consistent rather than data inconsistent with their initial theory (Wason, 1968). We examine the strategies that scientists and students use to evaluate data that are either consistent or inconsistent with their expectations. First, we present findings from scientists reasoning "live" in their laboratory meetings. We show that scientists often show an initial reluctance to consider inconsistent data as "real." However, this initial reluctance is often overcome with repeated observations of the inconsistent data such that they modify their theories to account for the new data. We further examine these issues in a controlled scientific causal thinking simulation specifically developed to examine the reasoning strategies we observed in the natural scientific environment. Like the scientists, we found that participants in our simulation initially displayed a propensity to discount data inconsistent with a theory provided. However, with repeated observations of the inconsistent data, the students, like the scientists, began to see the once anomalous data as "real" and the initial bias to discount that data was significantly diminished.

摘要

许多研究人员和学者强调了证伪在科学知识发展探索中的重要性(例如,波普尔,1959年)。矛盾的是,在实验室中研究人类推理的研究通常发现,人们表现出一种证实偏差,即他们更有可能寻找和关注与他们最初理论一致的数据,而不是与之不一致的数据(沃森,1968年)。我们研究了科学家和学生用来评估与他们的预期一致或不一致的数据的策略。首先,我们展示了科学家们在实验室会议中“现场”推理的结果。我们表明,科学家们通常最初不愿意将不一致的数据视为“真实的”。然而,这种最初的不情愿往往会随着对不一致数据的反复观察而克服,这样他们就会修改自己的理论以解释新数据。我们在一个专门为研究我们在自然科学环境中观察到的推理策略而开发的受控科学因果思维模拟中进一步研究了这些问题。和科学家们一样,我们发现我们模拟中的参与者最初倾向于忽视与提供的理论不一致的数据。然而,随着对不一致数据的反复观察,学生们和科学家们一样,开始将曾经异常的数据视为“真实的”,而最初忽视该数据的偏差也显著减少。

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