Predicting delay in reading achievement in a highly transparent language.

A random sample of 91 preschool children was assessed prior to receiving formal reading instruction. Verbal and nonverbal measures were used as predictors for the time of instruction required to accurately decode pseudowords in the highly orthographically regular Finnish language. After 2 years, participants were divided into four groups depending on the duration of instruction they had required to reach 90 % accuracy in their reading of pseudowords. Participants were classified as precocious decoders (PD), who could read at school entry; early decoders (ED), who learned to read within the first 4 months of Grade 1; ordinary decoders (OD), who learned to read within 9 months; and late decoders (LD), who failed to reach the criterion after 18 months of reading instruction at Grade 2. Phonological awareness played a significant role only in differentiating PD from ED and OD. However, phonological awareness failed to predict the delayed learning process of LD. LD differed from all other groups in visual analogical reasoning in an analysis not containing phonological awareness measures. Letter knowledge and visual analogical reasoning explained above 90% of the PD-LD difference. Preschool composite (objects, colors, and digits) naming speed measures best predicted reading fluency at the end of Grade 2. The supportive role of orthographic knowledge in phonological awareness, the role of visual analogical reasoning, and the inability of phonological measures to discriminate late decoders are discussed.