Jafelice Rosana Motta, de Barros Laécio Carvalho, Bassanezi Rodney Carlos, Gomide Fernando
Faculty of Mathematics, Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia, MG, Brazil.
Bull Math Biol. 2004 Nov;66(6):1597-620. doi: 10.1016/j.bulm.2004.03.002.
This paper introduces a model for the evolution of positive HIV population and manifestation of AIDS (acquired immunideficiency syndrome). The focus is on the nature of the transference rate of HIV to AIDS. Expert knowledge indicates that the transference rate is uncertain and depends strongly on the viral load and the CD4+ level of the infected individuals. Here, we suggest to view the transference rate as a fuzzy set of the viral load and CD4+ level values. In this case the dynamic model results in a fuzzy model that preserves the biological meaning and nature of the transference rate lambda. Its behavior fits the natural history of HIV infection reported in the medical science domain. The paper also includes a comparison between the fuzzy model and a classic Anderson's model using data reported in the literature.
本文介绍了一种关于HIV阳性群体演变和艾滋病（获得性免疫缺陷综合征）表现的模型。重点在于HIV向艾滋病的转化速率的本质。专业知识表明，转化速率是不确定的，并且强烈依赖于受感染个体的病毒载量和CD4+水平。在此，我们建议将转化速率视为病毒载量和CD4+水平值的模糊集。在这种情况下，动态模型会产生一个保留了转化速率λ的生物学意义和本质的模糊模型。其行为符合医学领域报道的HIV感染自然史。本文还使用文献中报道的数据对模糊模型和经典的安德森模型进行了比较。
