Duke G J, Green J V, Briedis J H
Intensive Care Department, The Northern Hospital, Epping, Victoria.
Anaesth Intensive Care. 2004 Oct;32(5):697-701. doi: 10.1177/0310057X0403200517.
Intensive Care (ICU) survivors discharged from ICU to the general ward at night have a higher mortality. We sought to clarify which factors, including night-shift discharge, influence outcome following ICU discharge in a metropolitan hospital, using a cohort study of critically-ill patients between 1/1/1999-30/4/2003. Patients were excluded from analysis if they (a) died in ICU, (b) were transferred to another hospital, (c) had an ICU length of stay <8 hours, or (d) age <16 years. Logistic regression was used to derive a predictive model based on the following variables: patient demographics, severity of illness following ICU admission (APACHE II mortality-risk, p(m)), final diagnosis, discharge timing including premature or delayed (>4 hours) ICU discharge, and "limitation of medical treatment" orders. The outcome measures were patient status at hospital discharge and ICU readmission rate. Of the 1870 ICU survivors, 92 (4.9%) died after discharge from ICU. Patients discharged to the ward during the night-shift (2200-0730 hours) had a higher APACHE II score and crude mortality. The difference in APACHE II p(m) did not reach statistical significance. No significant calendar or seasonal pattern was identified. Logistic regression identified night-shift discharge (RR=1.7; 95% CI 1.03-2.9; P=0.03), limited medical treatment order (RR=5.1; 95% CI 2.2-12) and admission APACHE II p(m) (RR=3.3; 95% CI 1.3-7.6) as independent predictors of patient outcome following ICU transfer to the ward.
At the time of ICU discharge to the ward three factors are predictive of hospital outcome: timing of ICU discharge, limited medical treatment orders and initial illness severity.
夜间从重症监护病房(ICU)转出至普通病房的幸存者死亡率更高。我们试图通过对1999年1月1日至2003年4月30日期间的危重症患者进行队列研究,以阐明包括夜间转出在内的哪些因素会影响大都市医院ICU转出后的结局。若患者存在以下情况,则排除在分析之外:(a) 在ICU死亡;(b) 转至其他医院;(c) ICU住院时间<8小时;或(d) 年龄<16岁。采用逻辑回归,基于以下变量推导预测模型:患者人口统计学特征、ICU入院后的疾病严重程度(急性生理与慢性健康状况评分系统II死亡风险,p(m))、最终诊断、转出时间,包括过早或延迟(>4小时)转出ICU,以及“限制医疗治疗”医嘱。结局指标为出院时患者状态及ICU再入院率。在1870名ICU幸存者中,92名(4.9%)在转出ICU后死亡。夜间(22:00至07:30)转至病房的患者急性生理与慢性健康状况评分系统II得分更高,粗死亡率也更高。急性生理与慢性健康状况评分系统II p(m)的差异未达到统计学显著性。未发现明显的日历或季节模式。逻辑回归确定夜间转出(相对风险=1.7;95%置信区间1.03 - 2.9;P = 0.03)、限制医疗治疗医嘱(相对风险=5.1;95%置信区间2.2 - 12)和入院时急性生理与慢性健康状况评分系统II p(m)(相对风险=3.3;95%置信区间1.3 - 7.6)是ICU转至病房后患者结局的独立预测因素。
在ICU转至病房时,有三个因素可预测医院结局:ICU转出时间、限制医疗治疗医嘱和初始疾病严重程度。