Skodvin O J
NAVFs utredningsinstitutt Avdeling for forskningsstatistikk og studier av forskning, Oslo.
Tidsskr Nor Laegeforen. 1992 Feb 20;112(5):666-9.
Prognoses show that Norwegian medical research will experience a recruitment crisis at the end of this century and approaching the year 2010. Two different prognostic models have been used to estimate the demand for recruitment. The first is based on no growth in the number of research personnel, while the second is based upon a 2% annual growth in personnel. This latter alternative shows that there may be a great demand for research trainee positions within the medical sciences in the higher education sector, especially from the mid 1990s. Today (1991) we have around 550 research trainees. By the year 2000 there will be an additional demand for 100 recruitment positions, and a further 300 positions by the year 2010. In the no growth alternative, the future demand will be lower than the 1991 level for the period 1992 to 2010. For various reasons it will be difficult to fill the demand for research personnel. First, it is necessary to consider the public education policy: From 1981 until today the number of students studying medicine and dentistry has declined. This means that a larger proportion of students must be recruited to research if today's level of medical research education is to be maintained or increased. Second, which disciplines should do medical research? Today many research trainees in medicine are not doctors, and will not be able to fill future research positions at clinics. These are some of the results of a recent study on recruitment to Norwegian medical research, carried out by the Institute for Studies in Research and Higher Education.
预测显示，挪威医学研究在本世纪末及临近2010年时将面临招聘危机。已使用两种不同的预测模型来估计招聘需求。第一种模型基于研究人员数量无增长，而第二种模型基于人员每年2%的增长。后一种情况表明，高等教育领域医学科学的研究实习生职位可能有很大需求，尤其是从20世纪90年代中期开始。如今（1991年）我们大约有550名研究实习生。到2000年，将额外需要100个招聘职位，到2010年还需要300个职位。在无增长的情况下，1992年至2010年期间未来的需求将低于1991年的水平。由于各种原因，很难满足对研究人员的需求。首先，有必要考虑公共教育政策：从1981年至今，学习医学和牙医学的学生数量一直在下降。这意味着，如果要维持或提高目前医学研究教育的水平，就必须从更大比例的学生中招募人员进行研究。其次，哪些学科应该从事医学研究？如今，许多医学研究实习生不是医生，无法填补未来诊所的研究职位。这些是研究与高等教育研究所最近一项关于挪威医学研究招聘的研究结果。
