[Will medical research face a recruitment problem?].

Prognoses show that Norwegian medical research will experience a recruitment crisis at the end of this century and approaching the year 2010. Two different prognostic models have been used to estimate the demand for recruitment. The first is based on no growth in the number of research personnel, while the second is based upon a 2% annual growth in personnel. This latter alternative shows that there may be a great demand for research trainee positions within the medical sciences in the higher education sector, especially from the mid 1990s. Today (1991) we have around 550 research trainees. By the year 2000 there will be an additional demand for 100 recruitment positions, and a further 300 positions by the year 2010. In the no growth alternative, the future demand will be lower than the 1991 level for the period 1992 to 2010. For various reasons it will be difficult to fill the demand for research personnel. First, it is necessary to consider the public education policy: From 1981 until today the number of students studying medicine and dentistry has declined. This means that a larger proportion of students must be recruited to research if today's level of medical research education is to be maintained or increased. Second, which disciplines should do medical research? Today many research trainees in medicine are not doctors, and will not be able to fill future research positions at clinics. These are some of the results of a recent study on recruitment to Norwegian medical research, carried out by the Institute for Studies in Research and Higher Education.