Cattadori Isabella M, Haydon Daniel T, Hudson Peter J
Center for Infectious Diseases Dynamics, Mueller Laboratory, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA.
Nature. 2005 Feb 17;433(7027):737-41. doi: 10.1038/nature03276.
There is circumstantial evidence that correlated climatic conditions can drive animal populations into synchronous fluctuations in abundance. However, it is unclear whether climate directly affects the survival and fecundity of individuals, or indirectly, by influencing food and natural enemies. Here we propose that climate affects trophic interactions and could be an important mechanism for synchronizing spatially distributed populations. We show that in specific years the size of red grouse populations in northern England either increases or decreases in synchrony. In these years, widespread and correlated climatic conditions during May and July affect populations regionally and influence the density-dependent transmission of the gastrointestinal nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis, a parasite that reduces grouse fecundity. This in turn forces grouse populations into synchrony. We conclude that specific climatic events may lead to outbreaks of infectious diseases or pests that may cause dramatic, synchronized changes in the abundance of their hosts.
有间接证据表明,相关的气候条件可驱使动物种群数量出现同步波动。然而,目前尚不清楚气候是直接影响个体的生存和繁殖力,还是通过影响食物和天敌而产生间接影响。在此,我们提出气候会影响营养级间的相互作用,并且可能是使空间分布的种群同步的一个重要机制。我们发现,在特定年份,英格兰北部红松鸡种群的数量会同步增加或减少。在这些年份里,5月和7月广泛且相关的气候条件会对区域内的种群产生影响,并影响肠道线虫——捻转血矛线虫(一种会降低松鸡繁殖力的寄生虫)的密度依赖性传播。这进而迫使松鸡种群趋于同步。我们得出结论,特定的气候事件可能会导致传染病或害虫的爆发,进而可能使宿主数量发生显著的同步变化。