Sung Lillian, Hayden Jill, Greenberg Mark L, Koren Gideon, Feldman Brian M, Tomlinson George A
Division of Hematology/Oncology, Department of Pediatrics, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
J Clin Epidemiol. 2005 Mar;58(3):261-8. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.08.010.
(1) To generate a list of items that experts consider most important when reporting a Bayesian analysis of a clinical study, (2) to report on the extent to which we found these items in the literature, and (3) to identify factors related to the number of items in a report.
Based on opinions from 23 international experts, we determined the items considered most important when publishing a Bayesian analysis. We then performed a literature search to identify articles in which a Bayesian analysis was performed and determined the extent to which we found these items in each report. Finally, we examined the relationship between the number of items in a report and journal- and article-specific attributes.
Our final set of seven items described the prior distribution (specification, justification, and sensitivity analysis), analysis (statistical model and analytic technique), and presentation of results (central tendency and variance). There was >99% probability that more items were reported in studies with a noncontrolled study design and in journals with a methodological focus, lower impact factor, and absence of a word count limit.
We developed a set of seven items that experts believe to be most important when reporting a Bayesian analysis.
（1）生成一份专家认为在报告临床研究的贝叶斯分析时最重要的项目清单；（2）报告我们在文献中发现这些项目的程度；（3）确定与报告中项目数量相关的因素。
基于23位国际专家的意见，我们确定了发表贝叶斯分析时被认为最重要的项目。然后我们进行文献检索以识别进行了贝叶斯分析的文章，并确定我们在每份报告中发现这些项目的程度。最后，我们研究了报告中的项目数量与期刊及文章特定属性之间的关系。
我们最终确定的七个项目描述了先验分布（规格、理由和敏感性分析）、分析（统计模型和分析技术）以及结果呈现（集中趋势和方差）。在非对照研究设计的研究以及侧重于方法学、影响因子较低且无字数限制的期刊上发表的研究中，报告更多项目的概率超过99%。
我们制定了一组七个项目，专家们认为在报告贝叶斯分析时这些项目最为重要。
