Seed dispersal in heterogeneous environments: bridging the gap between mechanistic dispersal and forest dynamics models.

Seed dispersal is an important determinant of vegetation composition. We present a mechanistic model of seed dispersal by wind that incorporates heterogeneous vegetation structure. Vegetation affects wind speeds, a primary determinant of dispersal distance. Existing models combine wind speed and fall velocity of seeds. We expand on them by allowing vegetation, and thus wind profiles, to vary along seed trajectories, making the model applicable to any wind-dispersed plant in any community. Using seed trap data on seeds dispersing from forests into adjacent sites of two distinct vegetation structures, we show that our model was unbiased and accurate, even though dispersal patterns differed greatly between the two structures. Our spatially heterogeneous model performed better than models that assumed homogeneous vegetation for the same system. Its sensitivity to vegetation structure and ability to predict seed arrival when vegetation structure was incorporated demonstrates the model's utility for providing realistic estimates of seed arrival in realistic landscapes. Thus, we begin to bridge mechanistic seed dispersal and forest dynamics models. We discuss the merits of our model for incorporation into forest simulators, applications where such incorporation has been or is likely to be especially fruitful, and future model refinements to increase understanding of seed dispersal by wind.