Integrated epidemiology and economics modelling for the management of animal health.

This paper discusses the role of integrated epidemiology and economics modelling in animal health planning, with particular reference to the evaluation of national level interventions that involve the vaccination of livestock. Well-integrated epidemiology and economics is considered essential if model outputs are to be of value in national animal disease control planning. The different approaches to the use of modelling in priority setting and resource allocation in animal health are reviewed and discussed. The authors conclude that this particular application of modelling is poorly developed, due in part to the complexities involved. Much more has been done to develop models that evaluate the merits of different intervention scenarios for a given single disease, and examples of these are presented. However, the authors conclude that despite the widespread use of such models, there is still considerable scope for the development of a more standardised approach, incorporating consideration of both direct and indirect implications of intervention options. In discussing the changing demands on animal health economics modelling, the authors propose that increased attention should be given to the valuation of "externalities", the calculation and interpretation of the distribution of costs and benefits, the evaluation of the impact of disease control on poverty reduction, and the development of real-time economics modelling techniques, to assist particularly in the effective management of disease outbreaks.