Tauras John A, Chaloupka Frank J, Emery Sherry
Department of Economics (m/c 144), University of Illinois at Chicago and NBER, 601 S. Morgan Street, Chicago, IL 60607-7121, USA.
Soc Sci Med. 2005 May;60(10):2351-8. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2004.10.007. Epub 2004 Dec 10.
While much is known about the economic determinants of tobacco use, very little is known about the economic determinants of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) use. This paper is the first econometric study to examine the impact of advertising on NRT demand. Pooled cross-sectional time-series scanner-based data for 50 major metropolitan markets in the USA covering the period between the second quarter of 1996 and the second quarter of 2002 are used in the analysis. Fixed-effects modeling is employed to estimate the NRT demand equation. The estimates indicate that increased advertising of Nicoderm CQ transdermal patches and Nicotrol transdermal patches increases per-capita sales of established Nicoderm CQ and Nicotrol products, respectively. However, increased advertising of Nicorette polacrilex (gum) was found not to significantly increase sales of established Nicorette products. Moreover, decreases in the price of NRT and increases in the price of cigarettes were found to increase per-capita sales of NRT products. Given the documented efficacy of NRT, measures to increase peoples' awareness of NRT products through advertising, measures to decrease the price of NRT, and measures to increase the price of cigarettes would be effective means to increase the use of NRT, likely leading to decreased cigarette smoking and reductions in the future public health burden caused by tobacco use.
尽管人们对烟草使用的经济决定因素了解甚多，但对尼古丁替代疗法（NRT）使用的经济决定因素却知之甚少。本文是第一项检验广告对NRT需求影响的计量经济学研究。分析中使用了基于扫描仪的汇总横截面时间序列数据，这些数据来自美国50个主要大都市市场，涵盖1996年第二季度至2002年第二季度这段时间。采用固定效应模型来估计NRT需求方程。估计结果表明，Nicoderm CQ透皮贴剂和Nicotrol透皮贴剂广告投放的增加，分别提高了现有Nicoderm CQ和Nicotrol产品的人均销量。然而，研究发现，Nicorette聚卡波非（口香糖）广告投放的增加并未显著提高现有Nicorette产品的销量。此外，研究还发现，NRT价格的下降和香烟价格的上涨会提高NRT产品的人均销量。鉴于NRT已被证明的疗效，通过广告提高人们对NRT产品的认识、降低NRT价格以及提高香烟价格的措施，将是增加NRT使用的有效手段，这可能会导致吸烟人数减少，并减轻未来烟草使用造成的公共卫生负担。
