Keeler Theodore E, Hu Teh-wei, Keith Alison, Manning Richard, Marciniak Martin D, Ong Michael, Sung Hai-Yen
Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley 94720-3880, USA.
Health Econ. 2002 Jul;11(5):389-402. doi: 10.1002/hec.677.
This paper provides an analysis of the benefits to society from the conversion of nicotine replacement drugs (nicotine patches and gum) in 1996 from sale by prescription only in the United States to over-the-counter (OTC) sales. To estimate these benefits, we first estimate statistical demand functions for nicotine patches and gum. Second, we calculate the effects of OTC conversion on sales of each type of nicotine replacement drug. Third, we survey the literature on the effects of nicotine replacement drugs on total quits of cigarette smoking. Fourth, we survey the literature on the effects of quits achieved on expected lifespan, and on the estimated monetary value of longer lives from smoking cessation. Finally, we use all this evidence to calculate the value of the social benefits of the OTC conversion to the US. As a result of the OTC conversion, consumption of nicotine replacement drugs has increased substantially, by 78-92% for nicotine patches and 180% for nicotine gum. We estimate that the resulting increase in smoking cessation generated annual net social benefits of the order of magnitude of 1.8-2 billion dollars, based on conservative estimates both of the number of quits achieved and the value of added quality-adjusted life years from the reduced smoking.
本文分析了1996年尼古丁替代药物（尼古丁贴片和口香糖）在美国从仅凭处方销售转为非处方（OTC）销售给社会带来的益处。为了估算这些益处，我们首先估算尼古丁贴片和口香糖的统计需求函数。其次，我们计算非处方转换对每种尼古丁替代药物销量的影响。第三，我们查阅关于尼古丁替代药物对总体戒烟效果的文献。第四，我们查阅关于成功戒烟对预期寿命的影响以及戒烟带来的更长寿命的估计货币价值的文献。最后，我们利用所有这些证据来计算非处方转换给美国带来的社会效益的价值。由于非处方转换，尼古丁替代药物的消费量大幅增加，尼古丁贴片增加了78 - 92%，尼古丁口香糖增加了180%。基于对成功戒烟数量和因吸烟减少而增加的质量调整生命年价值的保守估计，我们估计由此导致的戒烟增加每年产生的社会净效益约为18亿至20亿美元。
