Hansen James, Nazarenko Larissa, Ruedy Reto, Sato Makiko, Willis Josh, Del Genio Anthony, Koch Dorothy, Lacis Andrew, Lo Ken, Menon Surabi, Novakov Tica, Perlwitz Judith, Russell Gary, Schmidt Gavin A, Tausnev Nicholas
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.
Science. 2005 Jun 3;308(5727):1431-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1110252. Epub 2005 Apr 28.
Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 +/- 0.15 watts per square meter more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include (i) the expectation of additional global warming of about 0.6 degrees C without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) the confirmation of the climate system's lag in responding to forcings, implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) the likelihood of acceleration of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise.
我们的气候模型主要受人类制造的温室气体和气溶胶增加以及其他强迫因素驱动，计算得出地球目前从太阳吸收的能量比向太空释放的能量多0.85±0.15瓦每平方米。过去十年海洋热含量增加的精确测量证实了这种不平衡。其影响包括：（i）预计在大气成分无进一步变化的情况下全球将额外升温约0.6摄氏度；（ii）确认气候系统在对强迫因素做出响应方面存在滞后，这意味着需要采取前瞻性行动以避免任何特定水平的气候变化；（iii）冰盖解体和海平面上升加速的可能性。
