Section Paleoclimate Dynamics, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany.
Department of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
PLoS One. 2023 Feb 1;18(2):e0280503. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280503. eCollection 2023.
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on the time-scale of several centuries by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. The statistical models we propose are applied to annual maxima of daily temperature data from fully coupled climate models spanning the years 1850 through 2300. They enable us to investigate how extremes will change depending on the geographic location not only in terms of the magnitude, but also in terms of the timing of the changes. We find that in general, changes in extremes are stronger and more rapid over land masses than over oceans. In addition, our statistical models allow for changes in the different parameters of the fitted generalized extreme value distributions (a location, a scale and a shape parameter) to take place independently and at varying time periods. Different statistical models are presented and the Bayesian Information Criterion is used for model selection. It turns out that in most regions, changes in mean and variance take place simultaneously while the shape parameter of the distribution is predicted to stay constant. In the Arctic region, however, a different picture emerges: There, climate variability is predicted to increase rather quickly in the second half of the twenty-first century, probably due to the melting of ice, whereas changes in the mean values take longer and come into effect later.
我们提出了一种新的方法来模拟未来全球极端温度的发展，时间尺度为几个世纪，方法是使用非平稳广义极值分布结合逻辑函数。我们提出的统计模型应用于完全耦合气候模型的日最高温度数据，这些模型涵盖了 1850 年至 2300 年的时间。这些模型使我们能够研究极端情况将如何根据地理位置发生变化，不仅在幅度方面，而且在变化的时间方面。我们发现，一般来说，极端情况的变化在陆地上比在海洋上更为强烈和迅速。此外，我们的统计模型允许拟合的广义极值分布的不同参数（位置、比例和形状参数）独立变化，并且变化时期也不同。我们提出了不同的统计模型，并使用贝叶斯信息准则进行模型选择。结果表明，在大多数地区，均值和方差的变化同时发生，而分布的形状参数预计保持不变。然而，在北极地区，出现了不同的情况：在那里，由于冰的融化，预计在二十一世纪后半叶气候变率将迅速增加，而平均值的变化则需要更长的时间才能生效。
