Brand Kevin P, Zielinski Jan M, Krewski Daniel
McLauglin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Risk Anal. 2005 Apr;25(2):253-69. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00587.x.
Following a comprehensive evaluation of the health risks of radon, the U.S. National Research Council (US-NRC) concluded that the radon inside the homes of U.S. residents is an important cause of lung cancer. To assess lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure in Canadian homes, we apply the new (US-NRC) techniques, tailoring assumptions to the Canadian context. A two-dimensional uncertainty analysis is used to provide both population-based (population attributable risk, PAR; excess lifetime risk ratio, ELRR; and life-years lost, LYL) and individual-based (ELRR and LYL) estimates. Our primary results obtained for the Canadian population reveal mean estimates for ELRR, PAR, and LYL are 0.08, 8%, and 0.10 years, respectively. Results are also available and stratified by smoking status (ever versus never). Conveniently, the three indices (ELRR, PAR, and LYL) reveal similar output uncertainty (geometric standard deviation, GSD approximately 1.3), and in the case of ELRR and LYL, comparable variability and uncertainty combined (GSD approximately 4.2). Simplifying relationships are identified between ELRR, LYL, PAR, and the age-specific excess rate ratio (ERR), which suggest a way to scale results from one population to another. This insight is applied in scaling our baseline results to obtain gender-specific estimates, as well as in simplifying and illuminating sensitivity analysis.
在对氡的健康风险进行全面评估之后，美国国家研究委员会（US-NRC）得出结论，美国居民家中的氡是肺癌的一个重要成因。为评估加拿大居民家中氡暴露相关的肺癌风险，我们应用美国国家研究委员会的新技术，并根据加拿大的实际情况调整假设。采用二维不确定性分析来提供基于人群的估计值（人群归因风险，PAR；终生超额风险比，ELRR；以及寿命损失年数，LYL）和基于个体的估计值（ELRR和LYL）。我们针对加拿大人群获得的主要结果显示，ELRR、PAR和LYL的平均估计值分别为0.08、8%和0.10年。结果也可按吸烟状况（曾经吸烟与从不吸烟）进行分层。方便的是，这三个指标（ELRR、PAR和LYL）显示出相似的输出不确定性（几何标准差，GSD约为1.3），就ELRR和LYL而言，变异性和不确定性的综合情况相当（GSD约为4.2）。确定了ELRR、LYL、PAR与年龄特异性超额率比（ERR）之间的简化关系，这为将一个人群的结果推广到另一个人群提供了一种方法。这一见解被用于将我们的基线结果进行推广，以获得按性别划分的估计值，以及简化和阐明敏感性分析。
