Boldsen Jesper L
Institute of Forensic Medicine, Department of Anthropology, ADBOU, University of Southern Denmark, DK 5230 Odense M, Denmark.
Am J Phys Anthropol. 2005 Nov;128(3):586-92. doi: 10.1002/ajpa.20133.
Leprosy was a well-known and dreaded disease in the Middle Ages. A substantial fraction of the adult population carried leprosy-related lesions. Previous research analyzed the occurrence and implications of seven such lesions in samples of medieval skeletons. These analyses were carried out under the assumption of conditional independence among lesion scores. The present paper examines this assumption by developing a test based on the odds ratios and applying the test to three rural medieval samples from Europe: Tirup from the 12th-14th century AD in Jutland, Denmark; Refshale from the 12th-14th century AD on the island of Lolland, Denmark; and Lauchheim from AD 460-680 in southern Germany. Signs of nonzero prevalence of leprosy at death were found in all three samples: Tirup, 25.5% (95% CI, 17.2-34.6%); Refshale, 39.1% (95% CI, 25.5-54.7%); and Lauchheim, 16.2% (95% CI, 10.0-22.9%). It is shown that when leprosy is the prime factor creating variation in the lesion scores in and between samples, the assumption of conditional independence cannot be rejected.
麻风病在中世纪是一种广为人知且令人恐惧的疾病。相当一部分成年人口患有与麻风病相关的损伤。此前的研究分析了中世纪骨骼样本中七种此类损伤的发生情况及影响。这些分析是在损伤评分之间条件独立的假设下进行的。本文通过开发一种基于优势比的检验方法并将其应用于来自欧洲的三个中世纪乡村样本，来检验这一假设：公元12至14世纪丹麦日德兰半岛的蒂鲁普；公元12至14世纪丹麦洛兰岛的雷夫沙勒；以及公元460至680年德国南部的劳希姆。在所有三个样本中均发现了死亡时麻风病患病率为非零的迹象：蒂鲁普为25.5%（95%置信区间，17.2 - 34.6%）；雷夫沙勒为39.1%（95%置信区间，25.5 - 54.7%）；劳希姆为16.2%（95%置信区间，10.0 - 22.9%）。结果表明，当麻风病是造成样本内部和样本之间损伤评分差异的主要因素时，条件独立的假设不能被拒绝。
