Zinsstag J, Roth F, Orkhon D, Chimed-Ochir G, Nansalmaa M, Kolar J, Vounatsou P
Swiss Tropical Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002, Basle, Switzerland.
Prev Vet Med. 2005 Jun 10;69(1-2):77-95. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.01.017.
We developed a dynamic model of livestock-to-human brucellosis transmission in Mongolia. The compartmental model considers transmission within sheep and cattle populations and the transmission to humans as additive components. The model was fitted to demographic and seroprevalence data (Rose Bengal test) from livestock and annually reported new human brucellosis cases in Mongolia for 1991-1999 prior to the onset of a mass livestock-vaccination campaign (S19 Brucella abortus for cattle and Rev 1 Brucella melitensis for sheep and goat). The vaccination effect was fitted to livestock- and human-brucellosis data from the first 3 years of the vaccination campaign (2000-2002). Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (assessed by the deviance). The simultaneously fitted sheep-human and cattle-human contact rates show that 90% of human brucellosis was small-ruminant derived. Average effective reproductive ratios for the year 1999 were 1.2 for sheep and 1.7 for cattle.
我们构建了蒙古地区家畜至人间布鲁氏菌病传播的动态模型。该 compartments 模型将绵羊和牛群内部的传播以及向人类的传播视为相加的组成部分。该模型拟合了牲畜的人口统计学和血清阳性率数据（玫瑰红试验）以及 1991 - 1999 年蒙古在大规模牲畜疫苗接种运动（牛用 S19 流产布鲁氏菌，绵羊和山羊用 Rev 1 马尔他布鲁氏菌）开始之前每年报告的新的人间布鲁氏菌病病例。疫苗接种效果拟合了疫苗接种运动前 3 年（2000 - 2002 年）的家畜和人间布鲁氏菌病数据。基于拟合优度（通过偏差评估）对参数进行了优化。同时拟合的绵羊 - 人间和牛 - 人间接触率表明，90%的人间布鲁氏菌病源自小反刍动物。1999 年绵羊的平均有效繁殖率为 1.2，牛为 1.7。 （注：原文中“compartments”可能有误，推测应为“compartmental”，翻译为“ compartments 模型”不太准确，若为“compartmental model”应译为“ compartments 模型”）
