School of Mechatronic Engineering, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shan'xi 030051, China.
Math Biosci. 2013 Mar;242(1):51-8. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2012.11.012. Epub 2013 Jan 9.
Brucellosis is one of the major zoonotic diseases in China, especially in Inner Mongolia where occurs the largest number of human brucellosis cases of Mainland China, which can be attributed to the large number of sheep kept there, since at least 90% of the human brucellosis cases are caused by sheep. Therefore, given the characteristics of the brucellosis infection in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, we propose a dynamic model for the sheep-human transmission of brucellosis, involving sheep population, human population and brucella in the environment. We first determine the basic reproduction number R(0) and analyze the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium. Secondly, using the reported human brucellosis data, we carry out numerical simulations and make sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of some parameters. The results show that brucellosis cannot be eradicated even though disinfection rate and vaccination rate of adult sheep are 100%. By investigating and comparing the effect of vaccination, disinfection and eliminating strategies, we find that vaccinating and disinfecting both young and adult sheep are appropriate and effective strategies to control brucellosis in Inner Mongolia of China.
布鲁氏菌病是中国主要的人畜共患病之一，特别是在内蒙古，那里是中国大陆布鲁氏菌病病例最多的地区，这归因于那里大量饲养的绵羊，因为至少 90%的人类布鲁氏菌病病例是由绵羊引起的。因此，考虑到内蒙古自治区布鲁氏菌病感染的特点，我们提出了一个绵羊-人类布鲁氏菌病传播的动态模型，该模型涉及绵羊种群、人类种群和环境中的布鲁氏菌。我们首先确定了基本繁殖数 R(0)，并分析了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性。其次，利用报告的人类布鲁氏菌病数据，我们进行了数值模拟，并对一些参数的基本繁殖数进行了敏感性分析。结果表明，即使绵羊的消毒率和疫苗接种率达到 100%，布鲁氏菌病也不能被根除。通过调查和比较疫苗接种、消毒和消除策略的效果，我们发现同时对幼羊和成年羊进行疫苗接种和消毒是控制中国内蒙古布鲁氏菌病的适当和有效策略。
