Chowdhury Rashed
Bangladesh Water Development Board, WAPDA Building (FFWC), Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh.
Environ Manage. 2005 Jun;35(6):716-25. doi: 10.1007/s00267-004-0010-4.
Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is because of short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to produce long-lead seasonal forecasts--the demand for which is significantly increasing in Bangladesh--and disseminate these products through the appropriate channels. As observed in other regions, the success of seasonal forecasts, in contrast to short-term forecast, depends on consensus among the participating institutions. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Response System (henceforth, FFWRS) has been found to be an important component in a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood management. A general consensus in producing seasonal forecasts can thus be achieved by enhancing the existing FFWRS. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to revisit and modify the framework of an ideal warning response system for issuance of consensus seasonal flood forecasts in Bangladesh. The five-stage FFWRS-i) Flood forecasting, ii) Forecast interpretation and message formulation, iii) Warning preparation and dissemination, iv) Responses, and v) Review and analysis-has been modified. To apply the concept of consensus forecast, a framework similar to that of the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) has been discussed. Finally, the need for a climate Outlook Fora has been emphasized for a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood hazard management in Bangladesh.
尽管孟加拉国在短期洪水预报和信息传播系统方面取得了进展，但目前的系统仍不尽人意。这是因为提前期短的产品、过时的传播网络以及缺乏终端用户的直接反馈。一个可行的解决方案是制作提前期长的季节性预报——孟加拉国对其需求正在显著增加——并通过适当渠道传播这些产品。正如在其他地区所观察到的，与短期预报相比，季节性预报的成功取决于参与机构之间的共识。洪水预报与预警响应系统（以下简称FFWRS）已被发现是季节性洪水管理综合参与式方法的一个重要组成部分。因此，通过加强现有的FFWRS可以达成季节性预报制作方面的普遍共识。因此，本文的主要目标是重新审视并修改孟加拉国发布共识性季节性洪水预报的理想预警响应系统框架。五阶段的FFWRS——i）洪水预报，ii）预报解读与信息编制，iii）预警准备与发布，iv）应对措施，以及v）审查与分析——已被修改。为应用共识预报的概念，讨论了一个与南部非洲区域气候展望论坛（SARCOF）类似的框架。最后，强调了建立气候展望论坛对于孟加拉国季节性洪水灾害管理综合参与式方法的必要性。
