Ecological conditions that favor the evolution of intermediate-virulence in an environmentally transmitted parasite.

In this paper we develop and analyze several population-dynamic models of an environmentally transmitted symbiotic parasite infecting an isolated population of susceptible hosts. In our most basic model infection acts only to decrease the average lifetime of the infected host, parasites are only transmitted to uninfected hosts, there is no recovery from infection, and the rate of parasite transmission is an increasing function of the level of parasite virulence. It is shown that invasion of the parasite-free equilibrium cannot occur for virulence levels that are either too high or too low. We then incorporate a number of modifications to the model, among them the possibility that host fertility is reduced by infection, and that transmission rate depends additionally on susceptible host density. It is shown that the essential nature of the conditions for invasion are preserved. Thus, natural selection for intermediate virulence is a generic property of a broad class of population models.