Hakamies-Blomqvist Liisa, Wiklund Mats, Henriksson Per
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, S-581 95 Linköping, Sweden.
Accid Anal Prev. 2005 Jul;37(4):675-80. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2005.03.009. Epub 2005 Apr 14.
The present study used Swedish archival data on police-reported accidents and license statistics and Swedish questionnaire data on car use in order to test an underinvolvement hypothesis of older drivers' (65-84 years) accident involvement, postulating that the increase in older drivers' accident involvement is smaller than the increase in older drivers' presence in traffic. The results gave support to the hypothesis. Compared to the accident involvement trend in the general driver population, there was a relative decrease over time in older drivers' accident involvement per driver license and per active driver from 1983 to 1999. It is concluded that linear predictions of older drivers' accident involvement directly based on their increasing presence in traffic are likely to be overly pessimistic.
本研究使用了瑞典警方报告的事故和驾照统计的档案数据以及瑞典关于汽车使用情况的问卷调查数据，以检验老年驾驶者（65 - 84岁）事故参与率过低的假设，该假设假定老年驾驶者事故参与率的增长低于其在交通中出现率的增长。结果支持了这一假设。与一般驾驶者群体的事故参与趋势相比，1983年至1999年期间，老年驾驶者每驾照和每活跃驾驶者的事故参与率随时间相对下降。得出的结论是，直接基于老年驾驶者在交通中出现率增加而对其事故参与率进行的线性预测可能过于悲观。
