Swets J A
BBN Laboratories, Cambridge, MA 02138.
Am Psychol. 1992 Apr;47(4):522-32. doi: 10.1037//0003-066x.47.4.522.
Many diagnostic tasks require that a threshold be set to convert evidence that is a matter of degree into a positive or negative decision. Although techniques of decision analysis used in psychology help one select the particular threshold that is appropriate to a given situation and purpose, just the concept of adjusting the threshold to the situation is not appreciated in many important practical arenas. Testing for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and for dangerous flaws in aircraft structures are used here as illustrations. This article briefly reviews the relevant techniques and develops those two examples with data. It suggests that use of the decision techniques could substantially benefit individuals and society and asks how that use might be facilitated.
许多诊断任务都需要设定一个阈值，以便将程度性的证据转化为肯定或否定的决策。尽管心理学中使用的决策分析技术有助于人们选择适合特定情况和目的的特定阈值，但在许多重要的实际领域中，根据情况调整阈值的概念并未得到重视。本文以检测人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）和检测飞机结构中的危险缺陷为例进行说明。本文简要回顾了相关技术，并用数据展开了这两个例子。文章指出，使用决策技术可以使个人和社会受益匪浅，并探讨了如何促进这种应用。
