Gloster J, Champion H J, Mansley L M, Romero P, Brough T, Ramirez A
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB.
Vet Rec. 2005 Jun 18;156(25):793-803. doi: 10.1136/vr.156.25.793.
The possibility of the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the uk has been investigated in three epidemiological case studies. On the basis of evidence from field investigations, and a simple meteorological analysis, it is concluded that the spread of disease was consistent with the airborne transport of virus. The distances ranged from less than 1 km to 16 km; six of the farms were over 6 km from the source and involved the passage of virus over the sea combined with meteorological conditions which strongly favoured airborne disease transmission. The results of detailed atmospheric modelling demonstrated that airborne virus could have challenged livestock on all the farms studied. However, with one exception the 24-hour average daily concentrations of the virus were significantly below the experimentally estimated threshold for infection. A detailed model intercomparison established that, under stable atmospheric conditions, peak concentrations of virus up to two orders of magnitude higher might have been experienced for short periods, owing to fluctuations within the plume of virus, and model limitations. This finding would significantly reduce the apparent discrepancy between the experimentally estimated threshold for infection and the modelling results.
在三项流行病学案例研究中，对2001年英国口蹄疫疫情期间空气传播的可能性进行了调查。根据实地调查证据和简单的气象分析，得出结论：疾病传播与病毒的空气传播相符。传播距离从不到1公里到16公里不等；其中六个农场距离源头超过6公里，涉及病毒跨海传播以及强烈有利于空气传播疾病的气象条件。详细大气模拟结果表明，空气传播的病毒可能对所有研究农场的牲畜构成威胁。然而，除一个例外，病毒的24小时平均日浓度显著低于实验估计的感染阈值。详细的模型对比表明，在稳定的大气条件下，由于病毒羽流内的波动和模型局限性，短期内可能会出现高达两个数量级的病毒峰值浓度。这一发现将显著减少实验估计的感染阈值与模拟结果之间明显的差异。
