Sellers R F, Forman A J
J Hyg (Lond). 1973 Mar;71(1):15-34. doi: 10.1017/s0022172400046179.
An analysis was made of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease during the epidemic in Hampshire in January and February 1967. To explain the pattern of spread, it had to be postulated that virus was present seven days before the first outbreak was reported. It is suggested that the disease occurred initially in pigs fed on infected meat and that the virus was subsequently disseminated from the local abattoir, where the pigs were killed, to four farms by movement of animals, slaughterhouse waste, people or vehicles, and to fifteen by the airborne route. Subsequent spread from these farms was by movement in two instances and by the airborne route in five. The source and route of infection of the last farm in the outbreak were not determined.The risk of spread through movement was associated more with carriage of infected slaughterhouse waste, movement of animals, people or vehicles carrying animals than through collection of milk, artificial insemination or movement of other types of vehicles. Outbreaks of disease among pigs gave rise to more secondary spread than outbreaks in cattle. Secondary outbreaks attributed to airborne spread occurred only in ruminants. Most airborne spread was into areas of high livestock density and cattle in the larger herds became infected. Airborne spread could be correlated with wind direction and speed but not with rain. The reduction in the number of outbreaks at the end of the epidemic could be attributed to the elimination of the largest sources of virus, the control of movements and the fact that in all instances except two the wind was blowing virus over towns and out to sea, to areas of low stock density and to areas where animals had been killed.
对1967年1月和2月汉普郡口蹄疫疫情期间的传播情况进行了分析。为了解释传播模式，必须假定在首次报告疫情爆发前七天病毒就已存在。有人认为，该病最初发生在食用受感染肉类的猪身上，随后病毒从猪被宰杀的当地屠宰场，通过动物移动、屠宰场废弃物、人员或车辆传播到四个农场，并通过空气传播到十五个农场。随后，这些农场中有两起是通过移动传播，五起是通过空气传播。疫情中最后一个农场的感染源和传播途径尚未确定。通过移动传播的风险更多地与携带受感染屠宰场废弃物、动物移动、运送动物的人员或车辆有关，而不是与牛奶采集、人工授精或其他类型车辆的移动有关。猪群中的疫情爆发比牛群中的疫情爆发引发了更多的二次传播。归因于空气传播的二次疫情仅发生在反刍动物中。大多数空气传播发生在牲畜密度高的地区，较大牛群中的牛受到感染。空气传播与风向和风速有关，但与降雨无关。疫情末期疫情爆发数量的减少可归因于最大病毒源的消除、移动控制以及除两起外所有情况下风将病毒吹过城镇并吹向大海、牲畜密度低的地区以及动物已被宰杀的地区这一事实。
