Seto Michael C, Eke Angela W
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, and University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Sex Abuse. 2005 Apr;17(2):201-10. doi: 10.1177/107906320501700209.
The likelihood that child pornography offenders will later commit a contact sexual offense is unknown. In the present study, we identified a sample of 201 adult male child pornography offenders using police databases and examined their charges or convictions after the index child pornography offense(s). We also examined their criminal records to identify potential predictors of later offenses: 56% of the sample had a prior criminal record, 24% had prior contact sexual offenses, and 15% had prior child pornography offenses. One-third were concurrently charged with other crimes at the time they were charged for child pornography offenses. The average time at risk was 2.5 years; 17% of the sample offended again in some way during this time, and 4% committed a new contact sexual offense. Child pornography offenders with prior criminal records were significantly more likely to offend again in any way during the follow-up period. Child pornography offenders who had committed a prior or concurrent contact sexual offense were the most likely to offend again, either generally or sexually.
儿童色情制品犯罪者日后实施性接触犯罪的可能性尚不清楚。在本研究中,我们利用警方数据库确定了201名成年男性儿童色情制品犯罪者样本,并调查了他们在首次儿童色情制品犯罪之后的指控或定罪情况。我们还查阅了他们的犯罪记录,以确定日后犯罪的潜在预测因素:样本中有56%的人有前科,24%的人有性接触犯罪前科,15%的人有儿童色情制品犯罪前科。三分之一的人在被指控犯儿童色情制品罪时还同时被指控犯有其他罪行。平均风险期为2.5年;在此期间,样本中有17%的人再次以某种方式犯罪,4%的人实施了新的性接触犯罪。有前科的儿童色情制品犯罪者在随访期间再次犯罪的可能性显著更高。有过性接触犯罪前科或同时实施性接触犯罪的儿童色情制品犯罪者再次犯罪的可能性最大,无论是一般犯罪还是性犯罪。