Royal Ottawa Health Care Group, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Sex Abuse. 2011 Mar;23(1):124-45. doi: 10.1177/1079063210369013. Epub 2010 Dec 20.
There is much concern about the likelihood that online sexual offenders (particularly online child pornography offenders) have either committed or will commit offline sexual offenses involving contact with a victim. This study addresses this question in two meta-analyses: the first examined the contact sexual offense histories of online offenders, whereas the second examined the recidivism rates from follow-up studies of online offenders. The first meta-analysis found that approximately 1 in 8 online offenders (12%) have an officially known contact sexual offense history at the time of their index offense (k = 21, N = 4,464). Approximately one in two (55%) online offenders admitted to a contact sexual offense in the six studies that had self-report data (N = 523). The second meta-analysis revealed that 4.6% of online offenders committed a new sexual offense of some kind during a 1.5- to 6-year follow-up (k = 9, N = 2,630); 2.0% committed a contact sexual offense and 3.4% committed a new child pornography offense. The results of these two quantitative reviews suggest that there may be a distinct subgroup of online-only offenders who pose relatively low risk of committing contact sexual offenses in the future.
人们非常关注网络性犯罪者（尤其是涉及与受害者接触的网络儿童色情犯罪者）是否已经或将要犯下线下性犯罪。本研究通过两项荟萃分析来解决这个问题：第一项分析了网络犯罪者的线下性犯罪史，第二项分析了对网络犯罪者进行后续研究的累犯率。第一项荟萃分析发现，大约 12%（21 项研究，4464 名参与者）的网络犯罪者在其犯罪索引时存在已知的线下性犯罪史。在有自我报告数据的六项研究中，大约一半（55%）的网络犯罪者承认有线下性犯罪（523 名参与者）。第二项荟萃分析显示，在 1.5 至 6 年的随访期间，有 4.6%（9 项研究，2630 名参与者）的网络犯罪者犯下了某种新的性犯罪；2.0%犯下了线下性犯罪，3.4%犯下了新的儿童色情犯罪。这两项定量综述的结果表明，可能存在一个特定的网络犯罪者亚组，他们未来犯下线下性犯罪的风险相对较低。
