Cox Chris D
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Center for Environmental Biotechnology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, 27996, USA.
Water Environ Res. 2004 Nov-Dec;76(7):2672-85.
All models used in activated sludge design and analysis use parameters to characterize process performance. The values of these parameters are often assumed based on default values recommended in the literature, but to date, no quantitative estimates of the parameter uncertainties have been published. Similarly, little attention has been given to quantifying site-specific parameter variability, even though its occurrence has been observed several times in the literature. In this paper, universal uncertainty distributions of the model parameters from Activated Sludge Model No. 1 are developed from a database of parameter values reported in the literature using Bayesian statistics. Site-specific distributions of parameter variability were developed using the same techniques. All parameter distributions developed demonstrated that significant uncertainty and variability exist, which could lead to overdesign or plant failure if not considered during the design process.
活性污泥设计与分析中使用的所有模型都使用参数来表征工艺性能。这些参数的值通常基于文献中推荐的默认值来假设，但迄今为止，尚未发表关于参数不确定性的定量估计。同样，尽管在文献中已多次观察到特定场地参数变异性的存在，但对其进行量化的关注却很少。在本文中，使用贝叶斯统计方法，根据文献中报告的参数值数据库，得出了1号活性污泥模型中模型参数的通用不确定性分布。使用相同技术得出了特定场地的参数变异性分布。所开发的所有参数分布都表明存在显著的不确定性和变异性，如果在设计过程中不加以考虑，可能会导致过度设计或工厂故障。
