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发达国家涉及致命后果的国际恐怖主义流行病学(1994 - 2003年)

Epidemiology of international terrorism involving fatal outcomes in developed countries (1994-2003).

作者信息

Wilson Nick, Thomson George

机构信息

Department of Public Health, Wellington School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Otago University, Wellington, New Zealand.

出版信息

Eur J Epidemiol. 2005;20(5):375-81. doi: 10.1007/s10654-005-4503-0.

DOI:10.1007/s10654-005-4503-0
PMID:16080583
Abstract

We aimed to describe the public health burden and epidemiology of international terrorism (i.e. involving foreign nationals) with fatal outcomes in developed countries. Data was abstracted from a United States Department of State database for 21 'established market economy' countries and 18 'former socialist economies of Europe' for 1994-2003. To put the findings in a wider context, comparisons were made with WHO data on all homicides for each country. A total of 32 international terrorist attacks causing fatalities were identified over the 10-year period. These resulted in 3299 deaths, giving a crude annual mortality rate of 0.3 per million population. The mortality burden attributable to international terrorism in these countries was 208 times less than that attributable to other homicide. Even for the country with the highest mortality burden from international terrorism (the United States), this ratio was 60. There was no statistically significant trend in the number of attacks over time, but the attack severity (in terms of deaths per attack) was higher in the latter part of the 10-year period. A number of limitations with this data set were identified. If a more rigorous definition of 'international terrorism' was used, then this would substantially reduce the total number of such attacks defined in this way. In conclusion, there is a need for better quality data and improved classification systems for describing international terrorism. Nevertheless, the available data indicates that the mortality burden from international terrorism in developed countries is small compared to that from other homicide.

摘要

我们旨在描述在发达国家发生的造成致命后果的国际恐怖主义(即涉及外国公民)的公共卫生负担及流行病学特征。数据取自美国国务院数据库,涵盖1994年至2003年期间的21个“发达市场经济体”国家和18个“欧洲前社会主义经济体”国家。为将研究结果置于更广泛的背景下,我们将每个国家的这些数据与世界卫生组织关于所有凶杀案的数据进行了比较。在这10年期间,共确认了32起造成人员死亡的国际恐怖袭击事件。这些事件导致3299人死亡,粗年死亡率为每百万人口0.3人。这些国家中,国际恐怖主义造成的死亡负担比其他凶杀案造成的死亡负担低208倍。即使是国际恐怖主义死亡负担最高的国家(美国),这一比例也为60。袭击事件的数量随时间推移没有统计学上的显著趋势,但在这10年后期,袭击的严重程度(以每次袭击造成的死亡人数衡量)更高。我们还发现了该数据集存在的一些局限性。如果采用更严格的“国际恐怖主义”定义,那么以这种方式界定的此类袭击总数将大幅减少。总之,需要有质量更高的数据和改进的分类系统来描述国际恐怖主义。尽管如此,现有数据表明,与其他凶杀案相比,发达国家国际恐怖主义造成的死亡负担较小。

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