Yaniv Osnat
Department of Statistics, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91905, Israel.
J Theor Biol. 2006 Feb 21;238(4):795-804. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.06.032. Epub 2005 Aug 15.
An evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) is a strategy that if almost all members of the population adopt, then this population cannot be invaded by any mutant strategy. An ESS is not necessarily a possible end point of the evolutionary process. Moreover, there are cases where the population evolves towards a strategy that is not an ESS. This paper studies the properties of a unique mixed ESS candidate in a continuous time animal conflict. A member of a group sized three finds itself at risk and needs the assistance of another group member to be saved. In this conflict, a player's strategy is to choose the probability distribution of the interval between the beginning of the game and the moment it assists the player which is at risk. We first assume that a player is only allowed to choose an exponential distribution, and show that in this case the ESS candidate is an attracting ESS; the population will always evolve towards this strategy, and once it is adopted by most members of the population it cannot be invaded by mutant strategies. Then, we extend the strategy sets and allow a player to choose any continuous distribution. We show that although this ESS candidate may no longer be an ESS, under fairly general conditions the population will tend towards it. This is done by characterizing types of strategies that if established in the population, can be invaded by this ESS candidate, and by presenting possible paths of transition from other types of common strategies to this ESS candidate.
进化稳定策略(ESS)是一种策略,即如果种群中几乎所有成员都采用该策略,那么这个种群就不会被任何突变策略所入侵。ESS不一定是进化过程的可能终点。此外,存在种群朝着非ESS的策略进化的情况。本文研究了连续时间动物冲突中唯一混合ESS候选策略的性质。一个三人小组中的一员面临危险,需要另一名小组成员的帮助才能获救。在这场冲突中,参与者的策略是选择从游戏开始到其帮助处于危险中的参与者这一时刻之间的时间间隔的概率分布。我们首先假设参与者只被允许选择指数分布,并表明在这种情况下,ESS候选策略是一个吸引性的ESS;种群将始终朝着这个策略进化,一旦它被种群中的大多数成员采用,就不会被突变策略所入侵。然后,我们扩展策略集,允许参与者选择任何连续分布。我们表明,尽管这个ESS候选策略可能不再是一个ESS,但在相当一般的条件下,种群将趋向于它。这是通过刻画如果在种群中确立就会被这个ESS候选策略入侵的策略类型,并通过呈现从其他类型的常见策略到这个ESS候选策略的可能转变路径来实现的。