Ellison Larry F
Health Statistics Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont., Canada.
Ann Epidemiol. 2006 Mar;16(3):191-6. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2005.02.017. Epub 2005 Aug 15.
To provide an empirical evaluation of the performance of period analysis in comparison to traditional methods of survival analysis for predicting future 5-year cancer survival using data from the Canadian Cancer Registry.
5-year relative survival estimates were derived by period and traditional methods of analysis using data available at the conclusion of 1997. The extent to which these estimates agreed with survival later observed for cancer cases diagnosed in 1997 was quantified by calculating the squared difference of the estimate to the corresponding relative survival ratio actually observed.
Period analysis was observed to be superior to, or comparable with, cohort analysis in predicting the average 5-year relative survival observed later for virtually all individual cancer sites studied. The improvement in survival estimation was most pronounced for prostate cancer. Where period estimates did not match the eventually observed value, they were predominantly on the lower side. Complete analysis estimates were generally observed to be in between the cohort and period values.
The period method of survival analysis provides more up-to-date estimates of 5-year survival than do traditional cohort-based methods.
利用加拿大癌症登记处的数据，对时期分析与传统生存分析方法在预测未来5年癌症生存率方面的表现进行实证评估。
采用时期分析和传统分析方法，利用1997年底可得的数据得出5年相对生存估计值。通过计算估计值与实际观察到的相应相对生存率之比的平方差，对这些估计值与1997年诊断出的癌症病例随后观察到的生存率的一致程度进行量化。
在预测几乎所有所研究的个别癌症部位随后观察到的平均5年相对生存率方面，时期分析优于队列分析或与之相当。生存估计的改善在前列腺癌中最为明显。当时期估计值与最终观察值不匹配时，它们主要偏低。完整分析估计值通常介于队列和时期值之间。
与传统的基于队列的方法相比，时期生存分析方法能提供更及时的5年生存率估计值。
