Brownstein John S, Kleinman Ken P, Mandl Kenneth D
Division of Emergency Medicine, Children's Hospital Boston, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 2005 Oct 1;162(7):686-93. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwi257. Epub 2005 Aug 17.
Evidence is accumulating that universal vaccination of schoolchildren would reduce the transmission of influenza. The authors sought to identify target age groups within the pediatric population that develop influenza the earliest and are most strongly linked with mortality in the population. Patient visits for respiratory illness were monitored, using real-time syndromic surveillance systems, in six Massachusetts health-care settings, including ambulatory care sites and emergency departments at tertiary-care and community hospitals. Visits from January 1, 2000, to September 30, 2004, were segmented into age group subpopulations. Timeliness and prediction of each subpopulation were measured against pneumonia and influenza mortality in New England with time-series analyses and regression models. Study results show that patient age significantly influences timeliness (p = 0.026), with pediatric age groups arriving first (p < 0.001); children aged 3-4 years are consistently the earliest (p = 0.0058). Age also influences the degree of prediction of mortality (p = 0.036), with illness among children under age 5 years, compared with all other patients, most strongly associated with mortality (p < 0.001). Study findings add to a growing body of support for a strategy to vaccinate children older than the currently targeted age of 6-23 months and specifically suggest that there may be value in vaccinating preschool-age children.
越来越多的证据表明,对学童进行普遍疫苗接种将减少流感传播。作者试图确定儿科人群中最早感染流感且与人群死亡率关联最密切的目标年龄组。利用实时症状监测系统,在马萨诸塞州的六个医疗保健机构中监测了呼吸道疾病患者就诊情况,这些机构包括三级医疗和社区医院的门诊护理点及急诊科。对2000年1月1日至2004年9月30日期间的就诊情况按年龄组亚人群进行了划分。通过时间序列分析和回归模型,对照新英格兰地区的肺炎和流感死亡率,对每个亚人群的及时性和预测性进行了测量。研究结果表明,患者年龄对及时性有显著影响(p = 0.026),儿科年龄组最早就诊(p < 0.001);3至4岁的儿童始终是最早就诊的(p = 0.0058)。年龄也影响死亡率的预测程度(p = 0.036),与所有其他患者相比,5岁以下儿童的疾病与死亡率关联最为密切(p < 0.001)。研究结果为支持对年龄大于目前目标年龄6至23个月的儿童进行疫苗接种的策略增添了越来越多的依据,特别表明对学龄前儿童进行疫苗接种可能有价值。