Bakun W H, Aagaard B, Dost B, Ellsworth W L, Hardebeck J L, Harris R A, Ji C, Johnston M J S, Langbein J, Lienkaemper J J, Michael A J, Murray J R, Nadeau R M, Reasenberg P A, Reichle M S, Roeloffs E A, Shakal A, Simpson R W, Waldhauser F
US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California 94025, USA.
Nature. 2005 Oct 13;437(7061):969-74. doi: 10.1038/nature04067.
Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.
必须在正确的时间、正确的地点使用正确的仪器。2004年9月28日加利福尼亚州帕克菲尔德地震发生在圣安德烈亚斯断层上，而该区域恰好位于一个旨在记录地震的密集仪器网络中间，这种理想条件首次出现。由此产生的数据揭示了地震过程中前所未见的一些方面。在此，我们展示这些数据与帕克菲尔德早期地震数据相结合后，能告诉我们哪些关于地震物理学和地震预测的信息。2004年帕克菲尔德地震缺乏明显的前兆，这表明可靠的短期地震预测仍然无法实现。为了降低当前地震对社会的影响，我们应专注于开发下一代模型，以便能更好地预测破坏性地面震动的强度和位置。
