Ashley R M, Balmforth D J, Saul A J, Blanskby J D
Pennine Water Group, University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, UK.
Water Sci Technol. 2005;52(5):265-73.
Engineering infrastructure is provided at high cost and is expected to have a useful operational life of decades. However, it is clear that the future is uncertain. Traditional approaches to designing and operating urban storm drainage assets have relied on past performance of natural systems and the ability to extrapolate this performance, together with that of the assets across the usable lifetime. Whether or not climate change is going to significantly alter future weather patterns in Europe, it is clear that it is now incumbent on designers and operators of storm drainage systems to prepare for greater uncertainty in the effectiveness of storm drainage systems. A recent U.K. Government study considered the potential effects of climate and socio-economic change in the U.K. in terms of four future scenarios and what the implications are for the performance of existing storm drainage facilities. In this paper the modelling that was undertaken to try to quantify the changes in risk, together with the effectiveness of responses in managing that risk, are described. It shows that flood risks may increase by a factor of almost 30 times and that traditional engineering measures alone are unlikely to be able to provide protection.
工程基础设施的建设成本高昂，预计其有效运营寿命长达数十年。然而，未来显然具有不确定性。传统的城市雨水排水资产设计和运营方法依赖于自然系统过去的表现以及推断该表现的能力，同时还依赖于资产在整个使用期限内的表现。无论气候变化是否会显著改变欧洲未来的天气模式，很明显，雨水排水系统的设计者和运营者现在有责任为雨水排水系统有效性的更大不确定性做好准备。英国政府最近的一项研究从四种未来情景的角度考虑了英国气候和社会经济变化的潜在影响，以及这些变化对现有雨水排水设施性能的影响。本文描述了为试图量化风险变化以及管理该风险的应对措施的有效性而进行的建模。结果表明，洪水风险可能会增加近30倍，仅靠传统工程措施不太可能提供保护。
