Blacker John, Opiyo Collins, Jasseh Momodou, Sloggett Andy, Ssekamatte-Ssebuliba John
Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1B 3DP, UK.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2005 Nov;59(3):355-73. doi: 10.1080/00324720500281672.
Between 1980 and 2000 total fertility in Kenya fell by about 40 per cent, from some eight births per woman to around five. During the same period, fertility in Uganda declined by less than 10 per cent. An analysis of the proximate determinants shows that the difference was due primarily to greater contraceptive use in Kenya, though in Uganda there was also a reduction in pathological sterility. The Demographic and Health Surveys show that women in Kenya wanted fewer children than those in Uganda, but that in Uganda there was also a greater unmet need for contraception. We suggest that these differences may be attributed, in part at least, first, to the divergent paths of economic development followed by the two countries after Independence; and, second, to the Kenya Government's active promotion of family planning through the health services, which the Uganda Government did not promote until 1995.
1980年至2000年间，肯尼亚的总生育率下降了约40%，从每名妇女约生育8胎降至约5胎。同一时期，乌干达的生育率下降不到10%。对近期决定因素的分析表明，这种差异主要是由于肯尼亚更多地使用了避孕药具，不过在乌干达，病理性不育情况也有所减少。人口与健康调查显示，肯尼亚妇女想要的孩子比乌干达妇女少，但乌干达对避孕措施的未满足需求也更大。我们认为，这些差异至少部分可归因于，其一，两国独立后经济发展道路不同；其二，肯尼亚政府通过卫生服务积极推广计划生育，而乌干达政府直到1995年才开始推广。
