Ariho Paulino, Nzabona Abel
Department of Sociology and Social Administration, Kyambogo University, Uganda.
Department of Population Studies, School of Statistics and Planning, Makerere University, Uganda.
J Pregnancy. 2019 Dec 19;2019:6429171. doi: 10.1155/2019/6429171. eCollection 2019.
Fertility among rural women in Uganda continues to decline. Studies on fertility in Uganda have focused on the overall fertility in the country. In this study, we focus on determinants of change in fertility among rural women in Uganda using a multivariate Poisson decomposition technique to quantify the contribution of changes in the socioeconomic and demographic composition of women which we also refer to as the characteristic effects and changes in their fertility behavior (the coefficients' effects or risk of childbearing) to the overall reduction in fertility among women in rural areas during the 2006-2016 period. The "characteristics effects" are used to mean the effect of changing composition of women by the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics between 2006 and 2016. On the other hand, fertility behavior also presented as coefficients' effects mean changes in the risk or likelihood of giving birth to children by the rural women between the two survey years. Our findings indicate that the mean number of children ever born (MCEB) reduced from 4.5 to 3.9 in 2006 and this reduction was associated with both the changes in composition of women and fertility behavior. The composition of women contributed to 42% while the fertility behavior contributed to 58% of the observed reduction. The education level attained and the age at first sex showed significant contributions on both components of the decomposition. The observed decline in fertility is largely associated with the variation in the risk of childbearing among the rural women. The variation in the risk of childbearing by education and age at first sex of the rural women showed to be the biggest contribution to the observed change in fertility. Continued improvements in access, attendance, and completion of secondary schools by women in rural areas will be the key drivers to Uganda's overall transition to low fertility. Furthermore, with improved access to mass media in the rural areas, there can be changes in attitudes and large family size preferences which can create a conducive environment for the utilization of family planning services in the rural communities. Efforts should therefore focus on applying appropriate methods to deliver packaged family planning messages to these communities.
乌干达农村妇女的生育率持续下降。乌干达有关生育率的研究主要集中在该国的总体生育率上。在本研究中，我们聚焦于乌干达农村妇女生育率变化的决定因素，采用多元泊松分解技术来量化妇女社会经济和人口构成变化（我们也称之为特征效应）以及她们生育行为的变化（系数效应或生育风险）对2006 - 2016年期间农村地区妇女总体生育率下降的贡献。“特征效应”指的是2006年至2016年间妇女社会经济和人口特征构成变化所产生的影响。另一方面，生育行为表现为系数效应，意味着两个调查年份之间农村妇女生育子女风险或可能性的变化。我们的研究结果表明，2006年平均曾生育子女数（MCEB）从4.5降至3.9，这一下降与妇女构成变化和生育行为均有关联。妇女构成变化对观察到的下降贡献了42%，而生育行为贡献了58%。所达到的教育水平和首次性行为年龄对分解的两个组成部分均有显著贡献。观察到的生育率下降在很大程度上与农村妇女生育风险的变化有关。农村妇女按教育程度和首次性行为年龄划分的生育风险变化对观察到的生育率变化贡献最大。农村地区妇女在中学入学、就学和毕业方面的持续改善将是乌干达总体向低生育率转变的关键驱动力。此外，随着农村地区大众媒体接触机会的增加，态度和大家庭规模偏好可能会发生变化，这可为农村社区利用计划生育服务创造有利环境。因此，应着力采用适当方法向这些社区传递成套的计划生育信息。
