Strong Kathleen, Mathers Colin, Leeder Stephen, Beaglehole Robert
Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, WHO, 20 Avenue Appia, CH-1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland.
Lancet. 2005;366(9496):1578-82. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(05)67341-2.
35 million people will die in 2005 from heart disease, stroke, cancer, and other chronic diseases. Only 20% of these deaths will be in high-income countries--while 80% will occur in low-income and middle-income countries. The death rates from these potentially preventable diseases are higher in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, especially among adults aged 30-69 years. The impact on men and women is similar. We propose a new goal for reducing deaths from chronic disease to focus prevention and control efforts among those concerned about international health. This goal-to reduce chronic disease death rates by an additional 2% annually--would avert 36 million deaths by 2015. An additional benefit will be a gain of about 500 million years of life over the 10 years from 2006 to 2015. Most of these averted deaths and life-years gained will be in low-income and middle-income countries, and just under half will be in people younger than 70 years. We base the global goal on worldwide projections of deaths by cause for 2005 and 2015. The data are presented for the world, selected countries, and World Bank income groups.
2005年，将有3500万人死于心脏病、中风、癌症及其他慢性病。这些死亡案例中，只有20%发生在高收入国家，而80%将发生在低收入和中等收入国家。在低收入和中等收入国家，这些潜在可预防疾病的死亡率高于高收入国家，尤其是在30至69岁的成年人中。对男性和女性的影响相似。我们提出了一个降低慢性病死亡人数的新目标，以便将预防和控制工作重点放在关注国际卫生问题的人群中。这个目标——即每年将慢性病死亡率再降低2%——到2015年将避免3600万人死亡。另一个好处是，在2006年至2015年的10年里，将增加约5亿年的寿命。这些避免的死亡案例和增加的寿命中，大部分将出现在低收入和中等收入国家，且略低于一半将出现在70岁以下的人群中。我们制定这一全球目标的依据是对2005年和2015年按病因划分的全球死亡人数预测。数据呈现了全球、部分国家以及世界银行收入群体的情况。
