Abegunde Dele O, Mathers Colin D, Adam Taghreed, Ortegon Monica, Strong Kathleen
Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Lancet. 2007 Dec 8;370(9603):1929-38. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61696-1.
This paper estimates the disease burden and loss of economic output associated with chronic diseases-mainly cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes-in 23 selected countries which account for around 80% of the total burden of chronic disease mortality in developing countries. In these 23 selected low-income and middle-income countries, chronic diseases were responsible for 50% of the total disease burden in 2005. For 15 of the selected countries where death registration data are available, the estimated age-standardised death rates for chronic diseases in 2005 were 54% higher for men and 86% higher for women than those for men and women in high-income countries. If nothing is done to reduce the risk of chronic diseases, an estimated US$84 billion of economic production will be lost from heart disease, stroke, and diabetes alone in these 23 countries between 2006 and 2015. Achievement of a global goal for chronic disease prevention and control-an additional 2% yearly reduction in chronic disease death rates over the next 10 years-would avert 24 million deaths in these countries, and would save an estimated $8 billion, which is almost 10% of the projected loss in national income over the next 10 years.
本文估算了23个选定国家中与慢性病（主要是心血管疾病、癌症、慢性呼吸道疾病和糖尿病）相关的疾病负担和经济产出损失，这些国家约占发展中国家慢性病死亡总负担的80%。在这23个选定的低收入和中等收入国家中，慢性病在2005年占疾病总负担的50%。对于15个有死亡登记数据的选定国家，2005年慢性病的估计年龄标准化死亡率，男性比高收入国家的男性高54%，女性比高收入国家的女性高86%。如果不采取任何措施降低慢性病风险，在2006年至2015年期间，仅心脏病、中风和糖尿病这三种疾病，这23个国家预计就将损失840亿美元的经济产出。实现全球慢性病预防和控制目标——在未来10年将慢性病死亡率每年额外降低2%——将避免这些国家2400万人死亡，并预计节省80亿美元，这几乎占未来10年预计国民收入损失的10%。
