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运用选择实验评估人们对危险物品铁路运输的偏好。

Using choice experiments to assess people's preferences for railway transports of hazardous materials.

作者信息

Winslott Hiselius Lena

机构信息

Department of Economics, Lund University, PO Box 118, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden.

出版信息

Risk Anal. 2005 Oct;25(5):1199-214. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00660.x.

Abstract

This article investigates whether the choice experiment approach can be used to assess people's preferences and the determinants of these preferences in order to estimate the costs and benefits of different configurations of the transport of hazardous materials by rail. Changes in the exposure to hazardous materials that people are subjected to are used rather than changes in accident risk. To the best knowledge of the author, this has not been done before in a study of people's preferences toward hazardous materials. A mail survey, carried out in two cities in Sweden, is used to obtain tentative estimates of the willingness to pay for a reduction in exposure as well as the willingness to accept an increase in exposure. Special attention is given to viability, since the complexity of the activity studied, transport of hazardous materials, and the method used pose particular challenges. The response rate and tests of validity and consistency indicate that this method can be applied. Moreover, the results suggest that studies of this kind may provide guidance on changes in the transport of hazardous materials, especially because policymakers may influence the attributes presented here. Referring to the exposure of hazardous materials highlights the importance of providing the respondents with adequate information regarding hazardous transports. An important finding is that the amount of background information may have some effect on the stated preferences.

摘要

本文探讨选择实验方法是否可用于评估人们的偏好以及这些偏好的决定因素,以便估计铁路运输危险材料不同配置的成本和收益。研究使用的是人们所接触到的危险材料暴露量的变化,而非事故风险的变化。据作者所知,在关于人们对危险材料偏好的研究中,此前尚未有过这样的做法。在瑞典的两个城市开展的一项邮件调查,用于初步估计人们为减少暴露而支付的意愿以及接受暴露增加的意愿。鉴于所研究活动(危险材料运输)的复杂性以及所使用的方法带来的特殊挑战,对可行性给予了特别关注。回复率以及有效性和一致性测试表明该方法可行。此外,结果表明这类研究可为危险材料运输的变化提供指导,特别是因为政策制定者可能会影响此处所呈现的属性。提及危险材料的暴露凸显了向受访者提供有关危险运输的充分信息的重要性。一个重要发现是背景信息的数量可能会对所陈述的偏好产生一定影响。

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