Oye K A
Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge 02139, USA.
Water Sci Technol. 2005;52(6):59-64.
Disputes over invocation of precaution in the presence of uncertainty are building. This essay finds: (1) analysis of past WTO panel decisions and current EU-US regulatory conflicts suggests that appeals to scientific risk assessment will not resolve emerging conflicts; (2) Bayesian updating strategies, with commitments to modify policies as information emerges, may ameliorate conflicts over precaution in environmental and security affairs.
在存在不确定性的情况下，关于采取预防措施的争议正在不断升级。本文发现：（1）对过去世贸组织专家组裁决和当前欧美监管冲突的分析表明，诉诸科学风险评估无法解决新出现的冲突；（2）贝叶斯更新策略，即承诺随着信息的出现修改政策，可能会缓解环境和安全事务中关于预防措施的冲突。
