Verdonck F A M, Van Sprang P A, Vanrolleghem P A
Department of Applied Mathematics, Biometrics and Process Control (BIOMATH), Ghent University, Belgium.
Water Sci Technol. 2005;52(6):227-34.
It is recognised that there is a need for a proper treatment and transparency of uncertainty in risk assessment and management, especially in view of the upcoming proposed new chemical policy REACH, which delegates the responsibility for conducting risk assessments to industry. The current EU risk assessment for new and existing substances is largely deterministic and prudential measures are implicitly embedded in calculation schemes and rules. In this paper, a more probabilistic approach to risk assessment is advocated. The advantage is twofold: 1) inherent variability and other uncertainty pertaining to exposure and effects are transparently taken into account, while at the same time 2) issues of caution are explicitly transferred to the risk management phase. The result of a probabilistic risk assessment as suggested is improved transparency with quantitative and qualitative uncertainty estimates. Such uncertainty information can be used to discuss precautionary measures in the context of risk management.
人们认识到，在风险评估和管理中需要对不确定性进行适当的处理并保持透明度，特别是考虑到即将出台的新化学政策《化学品注册、评估、授权和限制制度》（REACH），该政策将进行风险评估的责任委托给了行业。当前欧盟对新物质和现有物质的风险评估在很大程度上是确定性的，审慎措施隐含在计算方案和规则中。本文主张采用一种更具概率性的风险评估方法。其优势有两方面：1）透明地考虑了与暴露和影响相关的固有变异性及其他不确定性，同时2）谨慎问题被明确转移到风险管理阶段。所建议的概率性风险评估的结果是通过定量和定性的不确定性估计提高了透明度。此类不确定性信息可用于在风险管理背景下讨论预防措施。
