Verdonck F A M, Van Sprang P, Vanrolleghem P A
Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, BE-9000 Gent, Belgium.
Commun Agric Appl Biol Sci. 2006;71(2 Pt A):59-64.
The risk assessment of plant protection products in the EU has started from a relatively simple basis using risk quotients. In the past years probabilistic approaches have been developed to quantify the inherent variability and uncertainty of exposure and effects. Probabilistic risk outcomes can, in our view, only change the conclusions of a deterministic risk outcome provided that regulators are willing to develop more differentiated (i.e. contextualised) risk acceptability criteria. This paper contributes to the discussion by providing questions for more differentiated risk acceptability criteria and by presenting the relationship between deterministic and probabilistic risk outcomes.
欧盟对植物保护产品的风险评估最初是基于相对简单的风险商数方法。在过去几年中,已开发出概率方法来量化暴露和影响的固有变异性和不确定性。我们认为,只有监管机构愿意制定更具差异化(即情境化)的风险可接受标准,概率性风险结果才可能改变确定性风险结果的结论。本文通过提出有关更具差异化风险可接受标准的问题,并阐述确定性风险结果与概率性风险结果之间的关系,为这一讨论做出了贡献。