Smallman-Raynor M R, Cliff A D
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, UK.
Int J Epidemiol. 1992 Jun;21(3):547-56. doi: 10.1093/ije/21.3.547.
This paper presents evidence that the growth rate of the AIDS epidemic at the district level in Uganda, Central Africa, displays a seasonally recurring geographical pattern, with epidemic acceleration in some areas of the country in the first 8 months of each year. The spatial and temporal variations in acceleration appear to be correlated with the predominant agricultural systems in different parts of Uganda. Based upon the frequently hypothesized relationship between malnourishment and the progression to clinical AIDS in HIV-infected people, it is suggested that the variations in epidemic speed reflect the seasonal patterns of nutritional deficiency which occur under some tropical agricultural systems. These preliminary findings require further verification since they have important implications for directing nutrition-related remedial responses to the AIDS epidemic in tropical countries where malnutrition and endemic HIV infection coincide.
本文提供的证据表明，在中非乌干达，地区层面的艾滋病流行增长率呈现出季节性反复出现的地理模式，该国部分地区在每年的前8个月疫情加速。加速的时空变化似乎与乌干达不同地区的主要农业系统相关。基于营养不良与艾滋病毒感染者发展为临床艾滋病之间经常被假设的关系，有人提出疫情速度的变化反映了某些热带农业系统下营养缺乏的季节性模式。这些初步发现需要进一步验证，因为它们对于在营养不良与地方性艾滋病毒感染并存的热带国家针对艾滋病疫情采取与营养相关的补救措施具有重要意义。
